Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
